Exactly.I could make an argument for either one.
I don't see it happening for fear of the Muslim US president now in office. Now after the election, if there is not still a Muslim president in office?
Israel is not capable of successfully striking Iran without a significant amount of support. It would have to be an Israeli/US strike, if any.
Purple?
News out there that Israel may consider and EMP attack first, making it more likely their air force can get in and out without much resistance. Though that appears could effect a greater region around Iran.
Is Israel planning EMP attack on Iran?
Their weakest link afaik is air-refueling capability (though they may be building that capability up), followed by their lack of ability to deliver large ordnance that would have a major effect on below ground targets.
The Syrian situation makes things interesting, as that path is pretty open both politically and operationally right now with all of the unrest.
They can do air-refueling. Going through Syria would still require them to violate the airspace of Iraq or Turkey to get to the Iranian border. Iraq would be more likely. I'm sure that Iraq would not cooperate with Israel but I do not believe they can even defend their own airspace at this point.