I'm not so sure. The beginnings of global conflicts aren't understood until well into hostilities.
I think it depends on current trends. Just before war historically in nearly every case I could find- going back to the collapse of Rome- economic turmoil was always a factor before war. The markets across the board were in turmoil both before both the 1st and 2nd WW's. Like for example, I just read an article about how Japan is steady building it's military again. Germany is mess, Russia has been flexing it's muscles... don't even get me started on Turkey- Erdoğan could well be the next genocidal maniac in modern times and time will tell. The whole middle east debacle, N.Korea, Iran.... I know it's cliché to say but history does have a history of repeating itself.