Did world war 3 just start?

[smokingman]

Their money is losing it's value , they're invading another country , flying bombers / fighters around neighboring coast lines and having nuclear readiness drills , nothing to see folks , move along .

You do realize the Ruble losing value helps Putin?
With 92% of the budget from oil sales to Europe priced in dollars,a falling Ruble helps not hurts Russia(at least to a point).It would be the same as raising the price of oil by the same % as the Rubble drops.It fills the budget gaps left since the fall in price of oil.It may even be deliberate by Russia's central bank.The main concern would be keeping inflation in check,which they have almost 500 billion in foreign currency reserves to defend the Rubble if needed.

As far as flying bombers and fighters around,the USA does that as well on a regular basis.We do not have any borders in the south China sea that I am aware of,but our aircraft have been intercepted by China at least 5 times this year.The US also conducted our largest Nuclear weapons drill this year May 12-16 (U.S. Conducts Nuclear Response Exercises - Defense One).

As for Russia invading Ukraine when NATO or the UN publicly state and show Russia has moved armor or is invading I will think something of it.Until then I am not buying it.Kiev has claimed Russia has invaded for over 7 months now almost on a daily basis,and today is no different than the last time they claimed Russian tanks entered(only last time is was 6 tanks with pictures and a Youtube video later disproved as west of Kiev by the road sign of a car dealership in the video).Things like confirmed by a NATO official mean nothing,until a NATO official actually comes out and confirms it as true.Russia has 15,000+ tanks...and they are going to invade with 30?

 

[T.Lex]

Russia has 15,000+ tanks...and they are going to invade with 30?

Only use as many as you need.

 

[mrjarrell]

NATO is apparently confirming that Russian troops and tanks are in the Ukraine now.

NATO: Russian troops in Ukraine now - Europe -

 

[Dead Duck]

But they've always been in the Ukraine......Oh, you mean officially.

 

[ArcadiaGP]

NATO commander: Russian troops, tanks move into Ukraine - CNN.com

 

[smokingman]

NATO commander: Russian troops, tanks move into Ukraine - CNN.com

But still no official word from NATO.http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/press_releases.htm

and this...
Speaking to journalists, Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby also could not confirm the reports. “I don’t have any independent operational reporting that would be able to confirm that report that these formations have crossed the border,” Kirby said
US, NATO say no evidence of new 'Russian invasion' of Ukraine > Strategic-Culture.org - Strategic Culture Foundation
US Unable to Confirm Kiev's Claims about Russian Military Vehicles in Ukraine - freenewspos.com
Latest from the UN.
For 26th Time, UN Has Emergency Meeting on Ukraine - ABC News

 

[Blackhawk2001]

Well, hopefully by the time the Poles "invade" their Russian neighbors, we'll have caught on to the scam.

 

[T.Lex]

BBC reporting:
BBC News - Ukraine crisis: Russian 'Cargo 200' crossed border - OSCE

The OSCE monitors said in one case a vehicle marked "Cargo 200" - Russia's military code for soldiers killed in action - crossed from Russia into Ukraine on Tuesday and later returned.
...
In its weekly report on Wednesday, monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said the "Cargo 200" vehicle was seen crossing from Russia into Ukraine at the Donetsk border checkpoint, Rostov region, on 11 November.
They said it returned to Russia several hours later. The OSCE did not inspect the vehicle.

The border crossing on the Ukrainian side - Dovzhansky - is currently controlled by the separatist rebels.

 

[T.Lex]

Hmmm... I think true coincidences are... rare.
BBC News - Armenian helicopter downing: 'Grave consequences' warning

Armenia has threatened "grave consequences" after Azerbaijan shot down one of its helicopter in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region.
All three crew members on board were killed in the incident, Armenian media report.
Azerbaijan's defence ministry said the Mi-24 helicopter was downed after it tried to attack its positions.
Nagorno-Karabakh is part of Azerbaijan but has been under Armenian control since a 1994 ceasefire.

A little bit of history might be helpful. As with many borders in Europe, the boundary between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been inconsistent throughout history. After WWI, the Soviet Union somewhat arbitrarily decided where the border was going to be. Armenian didn't have much of a say. Nagorno-Karabakh was/is mostly Armenian by culture, but physically located in Azerbaijan. It is similar to the Crimean in the Ukraine, in the sense of ethnic Russians living in a different country. Also like the Ossetia/Georgia problems.

So, in the early 1990s, there was war. It was partly civil war, in the sense that it was within the (new) country of Azerbaijan. But, Armenia supported the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh/Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh War - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The area is basically its own country now. Sorta.
Nagorno-Karabakh - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Henry]

This is still going on?
It's almost as if they did not get Bathhouse Barry's sternly worded memo.

 

[smokingman]

Well that certainly took an interesting turn.Would explain the quiet on MH17.
Is this the moment MH17 was shot down as it flew over Ukraine? | Daily Mail Online

 

[T.Lex]

You do realize the Ruble losing value helps Putin?
With 92% of the budget from oil sales to Europe priced in dollars,a falling Ruble helps not hurts Russia(at least to a point).It would be the same as raising the price of oil by the same % as the Rubble drops.It fills the budget gaps left since the fall in price of oil.It may even be deliberate by Russia's central bank.The main concern would be keeping inflation in check,which they have almost 500 billion in foreign currency reserves to defend the Rubble if needed.

I don't really disagree with this logic, but the financial hit to Russia of falling oil prices (and western "sanctions") might be bigger than previously suspected.
BBC News - Oil price slide and sanctions 'cost Russia $140bn'

Even with $500B foreign currency reserves, $140B a year net loss of revenue is a big hit.

Resources, and captive-market customers, become even more important. (Pun intended.)

 

[smokingman]

I don't really disagree with this logic, but the financial hit to Russia of falling oil prices (and western "sanctions") might be bigger than previously suspected.
BBC News - Oil price slide and sanctions 'cost Russia $140bn'

Even with $500B foreign currency reserves, $140B a year net loss of revenue is a big hit.

Resources, and captive-market customers, become even more important. (Pun intended.)

I hate to say this.Can you imagine if the USA was only negative 140 billion a year instead of roughly a trillion per year.While losing 140 billion a year is bad,they currently have almost 500 billion in surplus,vs our 17 trillion in official debt and much more in unfunded liabilities.Which situation seems worse the USA or Russia's?

 

[mrjarrell]

Looks like Vladimir has decided to carve off yet another piece of a former territory and make it "official".

Russia gets greater control over Black Sea region - Omaha.com: World

 

[T.Lex]

I hate to say this.Can you imagine if the USA was only negative 140 billion a year instead of roughly a trillion per year.While losing 140 billion a year is bad,they currently have almost 500 billion in surplus,vs our 17 trillion in official debt and much more in unfunded liabilities.Which situation seems worse the USA or Russia's?

haha

Well, yeah, except Russia is losing $140B in oil and sanctions alone. Their economy is in much MUCH worse shape than ours. That's the other side of the equation - our economy is roughly 6 times bigger than Russia:
Russia vs United States Economy Stats Compared

Our GDP alone is about 8x.

Having said all that, it is possible for certain other media outlets to make the case that some of our... uh... influence-building might be based on our own economic needs. I disagree with that assessment, but it also can't be ignored.

We need to get our financial house in order as much as anyone.

 

[zippy23]

everyone's economy is in terrible shape, and we are getting real close to the edge

 

[T.Lex]

Interesting NATO "lessons":
BBC News - Putin problem gives Nato headache

Moscow's approach is carefully calibrated to avoid a big response and Nato must find ways of responding as an alliance to what at first may appear to be pinpricks against one of its members, but an attack nonetheless that could gain in intensity if no adequate response is forthcoming.

 

[smokingman]

haha

Well, yeah, except Russia is losing $140B in oil and sanctions alone. Their economy is in much MUCH worse shape than ours. That's the other side of the equation - our economy is roughly 6 times bigger than Russia:
Russia vs United States Economy Stats Compared

Our GDP alone is about 8x.

Having said all that, it is possible for certain other media outlets to make the case that some of our... uh... influence-building might be based on our own economic needs. I disagree with that assessment, but it also can't be ignored.

We need to get our financial house in order as much as anyone.

They have a slightly different problem than we do.
Unemployment slid to 4.9 percent in May from 5.3 percent a month earlier, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said today in an e-mailed statement. The median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 5.2 percent.

Such low unemployment while the economy is stagnating is caused by the worker deficit,” Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, said by e-mail. “We see a lack of employees even in sectors with high productivity.” The unemployment drop is a sign of a growing labor shortage at a time the economy is beset by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its European allies in the wake of President Vladimir Putin’s takeover of Crimea. Historically low unemployment is hobbling growth.


Russia?s Unemployment Plunges to Record Low as Wages Grow - Bloomberg

Of course with high inflation due to a weakening currency(around 8%)they are raising interest rates.

Russia's central bank has raised its key interest rate to 9.5% from 8% as it seeks to tackle inflation.
BBC News - Russia raises interest rates to 9.5%

High wage increases due to a lack of unemployed people and high interest rates to curb inflation.

Very different problems than the USA with high unemployment,no wage growth,and 0 interest rates.



Indeed when you look at how Russia’s labor market has performed since the beginning of 2013 you get a much better idea of why Russians aren’t out on the streets: because most of them have to be at work.
In general, Western analysts tend to pay far too much attention to measures (like the Legatum Institute’s “prosperity” rankings or the total level of capital flight) that don’t have much impact on ordinary Russian citizens while significantly under-weighting measures (like the unemployment rate) that do. Even with all of the problems currently besetting the economy (problems that are very real and very serious!) in the entire post-Soviet history of the country it has never been easier for a Russian to find and keep a job.
More at http://www.forbes.com/sites/markadomanis/2014/11/11/russias-labor-market-is-still-healthy/

 

[T.Lex]

Totally agree that they have different problems. Socially and politically, though, that means different stressors and motivations.

BBC article from today about Russia's expectation of a recession.
BBC News - Russia warns of recession in 2015

Accepting your sources for low Russian unemployment, if that changes, but they still have high inflation and high interest rates, it gets very tricky.

 

[mrjarrell]

Russia's economy is imploding. Between the boycotts and sanctions and OPEC letting oil freefall (to kill off the American production industry) Russia is experiencing some hard times for their annexation of Crimea and continued war against the Ukraine. Won't make Putin flinch, but it will diminish him in the eyes of the Russian people.

https://news.vice.com/article/there...he-worlds-hurt-feelings?utm_source=vicenewsfb