Boiling the frog with electricity

[amboy49]

Ok so I own a Tesla model 3. It’s a long range awd. Love the car, absolutely it’s better than gas in almost every way. Tesla supercharger network is the model for what charging should look like. When I stop in Whitestown I’m adding around 600 miles of range per hour. Stop at some random ChargePoint 220 charger 20 miles in an hour if I’m lucky. I plug it in every night and don’t give a second thought. Planning on moving this coming summer and will get solar installed on the next house. Now that I am using more power it’s honestly a no brainer.

all that said I’m sure the intellectuals and researchers are seeing the same trends. People want to get solar and as soon as it makes $$ sense when they get an electric car they do it. Top that off with I’m now seeing that solar battery setups are almost as cheap as whole house generators and i think you are going to see a mass exodus from the residential grid in the next decade.

If I may ask, how much of your decision to buy a Tesla was influenced by government subsidy - either corporately or to you individually ? Musk is the ultimate con man that makes PT Barnum look like Mother Teresa. Tesla has never had a profitable year financially yet he is the darling of the EV world. Regardless of corporate profitability, Tesla is not a viable vehicle for the majority of personal vehicle owners. The purchase price is ridiculously high and out of reach of many, the changeout of the depleted batteries is terribly expensive, and home charging capability is woefully inadequate.

Feel free to enlighten me about the electric panel capacity required per residence to own an EV. Tell me about the distribution requirements necessary by the local electric provider. And, while you’re at it, help me figure out how to improve generation capacity when government is penalizing coal fired generation and plants are closing , oil production is about to be severely restricted due to the new administration’s energy policies, and the solar/wind paradigm is only fractionally adequate based on existing technology.

I’ll wait.

 

[indyblue]

How long after electric locks came out did you feel comfortable having them on your vehicle?

Never, and why my Corvette has a manual open cable in the trunk.

Also why I opted for an old fasioned dial on my safe. As a long time electronic technician I don't trust anything that critical being electronic. With my luck the lock battery would be dead just when I need access fast.

 

[rooster]

If I may ask, how much of your decision to buy a Tesla was influenced by government subsidy - either corporately or to you individually ? Musk is the ultimate con man that makes PT Barnum look like Mother Teresa. Tesla has never had a profitable year financially yet he is the darling of the EV world. Regardless of corporate profitability, Tesla is not a viable vehicle for the majority of personal vehicle owners. The purchase price is ridiculously high and out of reach of many, the changeout of the depleted batteries is terribly expensive, and home charging capability is woefully inadequate.

Feel free to enlighten me about the electric panel capacity required per residence to own an EV. Tell me about the distribution requirements necessary by the local electric provider. And, while you’re at it, help me figure out how to improve generation capacity when government is penalizing coal fired generation and plants are closing , oil production is about to be severely restricted due to the new administration’s energy policies, and the solar/wind paradigm is only fractionally adequate based on existing technology.

I’ll wait.

I bought used after the election. No subsidy. The decision to buy an electric car was partially due to Biden getting elected. I’ve worked in mainly power generation for my entire career and I was well aware of the policies that were coming. The price was reasonable considering the features and power. It’s faster than 90% of sports cars out there and it drives itself (I may or may not have smoked a v8 challenger with a cold battery in “chill” mode). Also doesn’t hurt that it only costs 6ish dollars to fully charge at home. Compared to a 30 dollar tank of gas (and rising) the price seems more reasonable over the total time of ownership.

As for what’s required to switch everyone to electric cars I have no idea,I’m not an engineer. That said just because the tech isn’t at full maturity doesn’t mean we should just put it away and wait for the oil to run out. Or perhaps you like sending American soldiers to the Middle East to ensure the flow of gas and oil?

Ya ya ya lithium and other mining operations for batteries..... That tech is changing all the time and Tesla is getting ready to deploy a non lithium solid state battery that will probably render ice cars as useless as the pager was after the iPhone.

go drive one. If you want and live in Indy PM me and we can take a test drive. I have yet to let anyone drive it that isn’t smiling 2 minutes in.

 

[churchmouse]

Ok so I own a Tesla model 3. It’s a long range awd. Love the car, absolutely it’s better than gas in almost every way. Tesla supercharger network is the model for what charging should look like. When I stop in Whitestown I’m adding around 600 miles of range per hour. Stop at some random ChargePoint 220 charger 20 miles in an hour if I’m lucky. I plug it in every night and don’t give a second thought. Planning on moving this coming summer and will get solar installed on the next house. Now that I am using more power it’s honestly a no brainer.

all that said I’m sure the intellectuals and researchers are seeing the same trends. People want to get solar and as soon as it makes $$ sense when they get an electric car they do it. Top that off with I’m now seeing that solar battery setups are almost as cheap as whole house generators and i think you are going to see a mass exodus from the residential grid in the next decade.

If and when you do go solar post up how it is working for you. Real world stuff.

 

[Twangbanger]

Back to the OP's subject...of COURSE the long-range objective is to sabotage our current way of life, not enable it. There are luddite prudes who think we consume too much, and need our standard of living dialed back. There are people who show up to protest I-69. There are people who show up to protest building a dairy queen. It's an anti-development mindset. I thought this was well-established and understood by everyone.

The reason these people don't get laughed out of the building, is there also exists a tight-wad type of consumer who dreams of getting something for almost nothing, and the environmentalists know how to play these people like a fiddle. They tantalize their irrational desires with hopes of being able to someday run your daily driver off the amount of sun rays that fall on the roof of your house. "Surely, the technology is right around the corner," they theorize. They leave the details up to some other useful person to figure out. They're not technical people, so they don't realize that if not enough joules of energy fall on your roof in a day to perform the work of moving an x-thousand pound vehicle the distance and speed they want it to go, no amount of efficiency or technology will ever "get you there."

"Capitalism with American Characteristics" has always found a solution, in the past. Why would "they" let us down now? The difference is that in the past, the country was governed by an "Onward & Upward" mentality. Build that dam. Build that bridge. Build that factory. Why? Because it's there, and because we can.

That's not the kind of people calling the shots anymore, or at least not in the majority sense. When you're governed by the tastes and temperament of people who think our standard of consumption should be moving backward, all the assumptions about what American Capitalism has been able to produce vs. what it can do now fly out the window. The kind of attitude that built what we have now, isn't going to build what we want in the future, because it's driven by different fundamental priorities.

There is always going to be a cheap-skate who dreams of something for almost nothing, and is willing to hear these people out. That's why every INGO thread about this subject devolves into nerd-talk about "what I have in my garage" and "what I had in 1967."

There is also always going to be a metro-sexual "early adopter" who regales everyone with the pleasures of their new found techno-car - fueled by a grid that burns coal, and which cannot be scaled to allow everyone to enjoy what they have. Because these people are "not engineers," they cannot do paper-napkin calculations to see what can be done with the amount of sun-rays falling on their roof in 6 hours. They just know they like their new toy. It surely must work for everyone. We just "need someone to figure it out." Well, technology isn't going to find the solution, if half the options on the table are, or in the process of being made, illegal.

These people aren't going to figure out what they're dealing with, until it's too late.

See California? Be California.

 

[churchmouse]

Back to the OP's subject...of COURSE the long-range objective is to sabotage our current way of life, not enable it. There are luddite prudes who think we consume too much, and need our standard of living dialed back. There are people who show up to protest I-69. There are people who show up to protest building a dairy queen. It's an anti-development mindset. I thought this was well-established and understood by everyone.

The reason these people don't get laughed out of the building, is there also exists a tight-wad type of consumer who dreams of getting something for almost nothing, and the environmentalists know how to play these people like a fiddle. They tantalize their irrational desires with hopes of being able to someday run your daily driver off the amount of sun rays that fall on the roof of your house. "Surely, the technology is right around the corner," they theorize. They leave the details up to some other useful person to figure out. They're not technical people, so they don't realize that if not enough joules of energy fall on your roof in a day to perform the work of moving an x-thousand pound vehicle the distance and speed they want it to go, no amount of efficiency or technology will ever "get you there."

"Capitalism with American Characteristics" has always found a solution, in the past. Why would "they" let us down now? The difference is that in the past, the country was governed by an "Onward & Upward" mentality. Build that dam. Build that bridge. Build that factory. Why? Because it's there, and because we can.

That's not the kind of people calling the shots anymore, or at least not in the majority sense. When you're governed by the tastes and temperament of people who think our standard of consumption should be moving backward, all the assumptions about what American Capitalism has been able to produce vs. what it can do now fly out the window. The kind of attitude that built what we have now, isn't going to build what we want in the future, because it's driven by different fundamental priorities.

There is always going to be a cheap-skate who dreams of something for almost nothing, and is willing to hear these people out. That's why every INGO thread about this subject devolves into nerd-talk about "what I have in my garage" and "what I had in 1967."

There is also always going to be a metro-sexual "early adopter" who regales everyone with the pleasures of their new found techno-car - fueled by a grid that burns coal, and which cannot be scaled to allow everyone to enjoy what they have. Because these people are "not engineers," they cannot do paper-napkin calculations to see what can be done with the amount of sun-rays falling on their roof in 6 hours. They just know they like their new toy. It surely must work for everyone. We just "need someone to figure it out." Well, technology isn't going to find the solution, if half the options on the table are, or in the process of being made, illegal.

These people aren't going to figure out what they're dealing with, until it's too late.

See California? Be California.

This is why I asked Rooster to post up his real world Solar experiences once he jumps in. A few members on here have it down to the basics and live off it pretty well so I understand but it took a lot of effort. And most are involved in the industry not newbies. I look forward to his reports.

 

[snorko]

I'm in the early stages of researching solar. I've got the ground for a large array and if the tax credits make it worthwhile I may do it. The biggest question I have is whether or not I would have any power available should the power be shut off. Many in California either thought they would or never asked but when they killed the power out there due to the fires those who had paid for solar systems had no more power than those who had not.

I'm not paying tens of thousands for a system someone else can shut off at will.

A lot of the solar power systems in California and other sunshine states are actually owned by someone else who is leasing the roof space from the homeowner.

 

[Twangbanger]

I still don't think many folks grasp the core principle here:

Electricity is a Publicly-Regulated Industry.

Starvin' Marvin is not.

The government cannot restrict how much gas Starvin' Marvin can sell you. It's very much like Fracking on private land. It's an economic transaction between you and them, and the government has no say in it. Your pocketbook is your "limit." If you want to fill up both tanks on your dually, buy a whole roll of lottery tix, and score a whole sleeve of Kodiak..."knock yerself out Bubba."

But power plants have permits specifying how much electricity they can generate. Once they're at that limit; they cannot produce one more "Polar Pop" worth of power, without going back to level-up their permit.

Once your vehicle is hooked up the to publicly-regulated grid, you are not in control of your destiny anymore. The smelly people who ride bikes to their jobs in the basement of a government building now effectively have a say in how much you're allowed to drive.

You may like your "Electric Kah" as long as you're the only one on your block plugging-in each night. But what about when everybody else joins you?

The Federal Government positively chafes at the fact they cannot control energy production via Fracking on private land. It's beyond their reach, and they hate it.

Well, they hate Starvin' Marvin every bit as much as Fracking, because again, they can't control it.

But once your car is hooked up to The Grid...they have got you.

 

[Cameramonkey]

Yep. I cant find the stats right now, but as I recall, somebody posted that in the average neighborhood in America, based on the current status of the power grid, we could only support one plug in car for every quarter mile or so to be able to supply the current required to recharge the average electric car fully in an 8 hour cycle. two to three cars per quarter mile if you include stay at home moms and 2nd/3rd shifters in a perfectly balanced environment. (no, Sally, you cant switch from 3rd to 1st shift. There are too many other 1st shifters on your street.)


We cant do what the environmentalists want us to do without at least a 6 fold increase in the ability to deliver electric current/energy to the grid at the street level.


And states like Californina cant even support current residential AC demand in peak summer months. How are they gonna charge everyone's cars if they cant even keep everyone cool today? Thats like expecting your unemployed deadbeat brother in law to host a kegger pig roast/crab boil when he cant even feed his own kids PB&J regularly.

 

[Tombs]

Electric car batteries with five-minute charging times produced

Exclusive: first factory production means recharging could soon be as fast as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles

www.theguardian.com

It's pie in the sky stuff for the time being. About as reasonable for personal use as is compact fusion.

It'll be at least 20 years before we see the type of batteries we need just to sustain things we're doing today. Much less what we'll need 20 years from now. Batteries came a long way very quickly with lithium, that was an engineering miracle. Expecting lightning to keep striking over and over is foolhearted.

Not to mention the central topic... Where is this energy coming from to charge the batteries? Renewables are nowhere near what they were promised to be. There's no real alternative to nuclear energy, yet they're shutting down most of the nuclear plants around the world. It's all being replaced with natural gas.

Electric vehicles and renewable energy are both luxuries, not a realistic future without rewriting the laws of physics.

 

[Route 45]

Electric vehicles and renewable energy are both luxuries, not a realistic future without rewriting the laws of physics.

Mmm hmm.

A 100% Renewable Grid isn’t just Feasible, it’s Already Happening

The ongoing debate around whether it’s feasible to have an electric grid running on 100 percent renewable power in the coming decades often misses a key point: many countries and regions are already at or close to 100 percent now.

www.resilience.org

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Mmm hmm.

A 100% Renewable Grid isn’t just Feasible, it’s Already Happening

The ongoing debate around whether it’s feasible to have an electric grid running on 100 percent renewable power in the coming decades often misses a key point: many countries and regions are already at or close to 100 percent now.

www.resilience.org

Hydroelectric seems to be a big part of that. Now, do you think the environmentalist are going to stand for the building of hydroelectric dams in the US?

 

[Route 45]

Hydroelectric seems to be a big part of that. Now, do you think the environmentalist are going to stand for the building of hydroelectric dams in the US?

Apparently so.

Environmentalists and Dam Operators, at War for Years, Start Making Peace (Published 2020)

Facing a climate crisis, environmental groups and industry agree to work together to bolster hydropower while reducing harm from dams.

www.nytimes.com

 

[jamil]

Ok so I own a Tesla model 3. It’s a long range awd. Love the car, absolutely it’s better than gas in almost every way. Tesla supercharger network is the model for what charging should look like. When I stop in Whitestown I’m adding around 600 miles of range per hour. Stop at some random ChargePoint 220 charger 20 miles in an hour if I’m lucky. I plug it in every night and don’t give a second thought. Planning on moving this coming summer and will get solar installed on the next house. Now that I am using more power it’s honestly a no brainer.

all that said I’m sure the intellectuals and researchers are seeing the same trends. People want to get solar and as soon as it makes $$ sense when they get an electric car they do it. Top that off with I’m now seeing that solar battery setups are almost as cheap as whole house generators and i think you are going to see a mass exodus from the residential grid in the next decade.

Teslas are cool...when they’re not ****. They have a huge edge in tech, especially battery tech. But the other car companies will catch up. Tesla needs to learn how to build cars that aren’t **** before that happens or they’ll be driven out of business.

 

[DoggyDaddy]

Apparently so.

Environmentalists and Dam Operators, at War for Years, Start Making Peace (Published 2020)

Facing a climate crisis, environmental groups and industry agree to work together to bolster hydropower while reducing harm from dams.

www.nytimes.com

I couldn't read the article but if true, it seems like a much better proposition than solar or wind.

 

[jamil]

Mmm hmm.

A 100% Renewable Grid isn’t just Feasible, it’s Already Happening

The ongoing debate around whether it’s feasible to have an electric grid running on 100 percent renewable power in the coming decades often misses a key point: many countries and regions are already at or close to 100 percent now.

www.resilience.org

While I wouldn’t dismiss it off hand like Tombs, that article is way more optimistic than reality bears. The handful of countries close to 100% renewable all have dinky economies. Making Iceland 100% reliant on renewable energy is nowhere near the same thing as implementing it here in the US. It’s gonna happen eventually. It is not just around the corner. Forcing the US to go beyond a natural, market-driven pace, will not be without significant hardship. Slow the **** down. Let the market drive the transition.

 

[jamil]

Hydroelectric seems to be a big part of that. Now, do you think the environmentalist are going to stand for the building of hydroelectric dams in the US?

It’s propaganda.

 

[rooster]

Relevant article citing Elon’s thoughts about transitioning away from fossil fuels. https://www.inverse.com/innovation/elon-musk-transition-earth-to-renewables/amp

One think I can tell you from working in power generation is that most new capacity is focused on renewables anyway.

I’ll say this much, I wouldn’t choose my career right now if I was 18 again. It looks more and more like I’ll be one of the last to retire doing what I do.

CM I’ll do a post if or when that happens. Plan is to sell our current place and flip some of the equity into a solar array and battery setup at the new place. Gonna need it after I trade my Silverado in on one of the new cybertrucks. Made my reservation the day after my wife and I bought the mode 3.

 

[indyblue]

Electric car batteries with five-minute charging times produced

Exclusive: first factory production means recharging could soon be as fast as filling up petrol or diesel vehicles

www.theguardian.com

Press releases similar to this come out almost every week now, each with bigger claims. Most of these claims are purely theoretical and can only be done at the lab level and will likely never scale to production or are prohibitively expensive with current materials and tech.

One example, the liquid battery where the electrolyte is simply replaced like gasoline to recharge. It seems like a good idea, but can you imagine a car with a battery that has gallons of strong acids flowing through it in an accident that breeches the container? It would be ugly for all involved.

Not saying it's not possible, just that the purpose most of these articles are for getting funding and/or investors so they can get rich. If any of these so-called paradigm-shifting radical technologies actually existed it would be bigtime world-wide news and investors would line up around the block to fund them.

 

[indyblue]

Relevant article citing Elon’s thoughts about transitioning away from fossil fuels. https://www.inverse.com/innovation/elon-musk-transition-earth-to-renewables/amp

One think I can tell you from working in power generation is that most new capacity is focused on renewables anyway.

I’ll say this much, I wouldn’t choose my career right now if I was 18 again. It looks more and more like I’ll be one of the last to retire doing what I do.

CM I’ll do a post if or when that happens. Plan is to sell our current place and flip some of the equity into a solar array and battery setup at the new place. Gonna need it after I trade my Silverado in on one of the new cybertrucks. Made my reservation the day after my wife and I bought the mode 3.

I'd like to know what you're gonna do if your out offroad in the bush and your charge suddenly gets low due to increased load demands of rocks/mud/ruts. You can't just hike out of the wilderness and and carry in some more 'lectricity like you can a container of gas.

How far will it tow a camper or skid-steer? Seems pretty useless as a truck or more of a virtue-sigalling toy to commute in.