SheepDog4Life
Natural Gray Man
Here is a snippet from Worldometer's take on CFR which is what I was talking about:Since the worldometers-derived CFR was calculable over a continuous period of months, it seems that comparing one data point to another calculated the same way would still be relevant unless somehow the length of time between diagnosis and death was lengthening quite markedly. Recall that the steady, downward trend of the calculation was uninterrupted by the 'second spike' which at the time we were told was due to the 'death latency'. Are you suggesting that those increased deaths postulated from the increased cases in August and September are just now showing up in the numbers? That's quite a large latency
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
(Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).
In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.
Also, if you're trying to match peak cases to peak fatality, that might be problematic because it's not only a delay in time but also a spreading function (1-6 weeks post symptom) and no idea what the spreading function looks like.
Since you're looking at the summer numbers, where do US cases start rising from flat or shallow down trend? I see that around June 14-15. Do the same for fatalities... I see July 6-7... about 3 weeks.