Looks like some cleansing, or my mind is playing tricks on me... could be both.Boy, this thread's took a slow turn...
Correct, but the news is not reporting that 3 of them was health related deaths.Looks like 4 people died in the Capitol building takeover yesterday.
But about 4,000 died from COVID yesterday.
More than 15,000 people died in the first week of 2021. I believe the first recorded COVID death was on Feb. 29, 2020, in the US. From that date, it took about 40 days to hit 15k deaths.
Welcome to my world of watching the numbers.Well, I appear to have been wrong. We seem to be having a post-holiday spike. About 7,200 new cases today, 6,800 yesterday. We'll see how long this lasts. Still relatively good hospital and ICU numbers. It will be interesting to see what happens to the death rate and hospitalization once the 80 and over vaccines are rolling. Tomorrow they are starting to take appointments for those over 80 to be vaccinated. Until now, it has been healthcare providers and those living in nursing homes.
I agree. It is too early. There are issues of people putting off being tested and now that the holidays are over getting tested and issues where those reporting may not have been working consistently over the 2 weeks before this. 2 or 3 more days will tell the tale.Welcome to my world of watching the numbers.
I think it is still too early to call it a "spike." But, the trend is disturbing.
Considering all of the contract tracing being done, wouldn't a study of actual cases be more beneficial to gauge asymptomatic spread rather then using a model?CDC came out with a "model" that says COVID-19 infected but asymptomatic people account for 59% of the transmission of new cases. They say this makes it really, really important to do what they tell you to do. Not everybody believes them - go figure.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2021/01/07/covid-asymptomatic-spread/
Considering all of the contract tracing being done, wouldn't a study of actual cases be more beneficial to gauge asymptomatic spread rather then using a model?
Does wordometers have margins of error?US wordometers derived CFR drops under 1.7% to 1.69%. At the current rate of decline we will drop under Japan's rate by about February 10th
Not really. It allows for a straight up deaths/cases equation.Does wordometers have margins of error?
I believe the traditional Chinese New Year hasn't happened yet and the Year of the OX will be ushered in at 1600 GMT on February 11th
Are you sure it isn't the year of the Jackass?7.62 x 63
Of course!Are you sure it isn't the year of the Jackass?
Are you having some fun at our expense seeing who will recognize .30/06 converted to metric?
I am unable to come up with a rational theory for why our worldometers derived CFR is dropping, Germany's is rising and Japan's is staying the sameNot really. It allows for a straight up deaths/cases equation.
Perhaps more importantly, the CFR is leveling and by my estimation that sort of metric will bottom out at about 1.5%. It took 55 days for it to go from 4% to 3%; 84 days to go from 3% to 2%; and has been under 2% for 40 days and is only down to 1.69%.
I think I mentioned this before, but that kind of "absolute" (my label) CFR is only one metric. If you take the average daily CFR (that is, track each day's CFR, then average them), then it is at 3.43%. But, the bias there is that it includes a timeframe in which our testing wasn't very thorough.
It is also important to keep in mind that any sort of "actual" (my label) CFR won't be established until the statisticians can dig in with some more reliable numbers about the a-/non-symptomatic cases. I wouldn't be surprised if it is under 1%, just because they really don't know how this is transmitted. Well, we know some of the vectors that can be summarized by "proximity." But I have little confidence about any sort of deeper understanding of how to stop it from being transmitted.
I am unable to come up with a rational theory for why our worldometers derived CFR is dropping, Germany's is rising and Japan's is staying the same