We are on the same page here. So my point, then, is this:All reported cases between sometime in early April and an endpoint in late July I believe, interval specifically chosen for assumed dominance of the Delta variant
If we are looking at all reported cases, why is one of those groups so much larger? In other words, if we are looking at all reported cases, why are there 12.3x more reported cases among the unvaccinated? I agree with the rest of the math about the outcomes. But, if half the people are vaccinated, and half aren’t, we SHOULD end up with equal sample sizes if the vaccine didn’t work at all. We would have 250k cases among the vaccinated and 250k among the unvaccinated. To me, that would suggest the vaccine DOES prevent more infections.
I’m not arguing everyone should run out and get vaccinated if they don’t want to. My point is just that telling people that it’s not just ineffective, but actually maybe more dangerous, is irresponsible and not supported by numbers.