To Mask or Not to Mask?

[jamil]

You can't wait until this is over to make rational choices. We're only talking about putting on a mask not cutting off your testicle

Wait. Did you just make a "don't just stand there, do something" argument? C'mon. This is not building trust.

 

[BugI02]

That’s not really all of it though. It’s not all on the press. Politicians are basing policy on this stuff. They based policy on the information that we had months ago and now we find it was incorrect all along. I think sometimes “don’t just do something. Stand there” is a better approach than the other way around. How about we don’t ruin people’s livelihoods and lives based on, “could be”.

This is a worthwhile rigorous critique of the weaknesses of modeling, by a discipline that has already made a lot of the same mistakes the epidemiologists are making now. Alpo might even approve (it mentions his boy Hayek)

https://www.aier.org/article/what-economists-can-teach-epidemiologists/
What Economists Can Teach Epidemiologists

 

[dusty88]

I've been (sincerely) asking for this. Can you cite sources?

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4.pdf (viral load during different phases of infection)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042606v1 contact tracing includes some asymptomatic cases

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32412896/ a cluster at fitness classes from a presymptomatic (or asymptomatic, not sure in this case)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457 presymptomatic transmission in a nursing home

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32067043/ a cluster indicating possible transmission during the incubation period

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012 a review paper on asymptomatic transmission

 

[dusty88]

Wait. Did you just make a "don't just stand there, do something" argument? C'mon. This is not building trust.

Jamil. I agree with the danger of "dont just stand there do something" approaches. Those approaches usually include a big potential downside to the action.

Wearing a face covering while we learn more about this disease doesn't have a discernible downside.

Heck, it's far more work and risk to carry a gun, so I'm pretty flummoxed why so many on this forum are resisting the inconvenience of a mask.

 

[BugI02]

We don’t know how much masks do really. Probably not nearly as much as some people think but more than others think. It’s not zero and it’s not 100. But, before we go making laws that incarcerate people for not wearing them, let’s find some proof that it’s actually doing the kind of harm to people that should require such punishment.

I would also like a little attention given to whether keeping all but the most risky cohorts from getting Wuvid 19 is even a desirable action. Concentrate on enabling self-protection for the vulnerable and allowing the rest to resume living and working never seems to get modeled. I missed all those logical steps where programs put in place to delay infection suddenly became able to prevent infection (if done forever)

 

[jamil]

This is a worthwhile rigorous critique of the weaknesses of modeling, by a discipline that has already made a lot of the same mistakes the epidemiologists are making now. Alpo might even approve (it mentions his boy Hayek)

https://www.aier.org/article/what-economists-can-teach-epidemiologists/
What Economists Can Teach Epidemiologists

Wait. I thought Alpo was a Keynesian.

Anyway, I think too little is still known for models to be reliable.

 

[BugI02]

this particular statement kind of stuck with me overnight

Exactly who is the "you" that you feel you are being ordered around by? The surgeon general? Fauci? Liberals?

Whomever it is, it might be someone quite different downstream from an infection if you presymptomatically spread SARSCov2 to someone. It most likely will be someone you never met.

I always thought of preppers and most conservatives as people who voluntarily helped others, even sometimes at a bit of personal sacrifice.

The worst outcome of you not wearing a mask is that you DO contribute to someone's dead grandma, or even dead child.

The worst outcome of you wearing a mask is... what?

Allowing the continued destruction of the economy and subornment of the voting system in the interest of providing illusory 'safety' of the populace

 

[churchmouse]

Allowing the continued destruction of the economy and subornment of the voting system in the interest of providing illusory 'safety' of the populace

​And we have a "WINNER"

 

[dusty88]

Allowing the continued destruction of the economy and subornment of the voting system in the interest of providing illusory 'safety' of the populace

How does wearing a facial covering cause these things? Evidence?

 

[BugI02]

Is that what this is about? I'm asking that seriously , not rhetorically. Is it about resisting authority? Because I can understand the arguments for opening businesses. I have a lot more trouble understanding why people won't put on a facial covering.

[Because it appears to be pandemic theatre, useful only to feed the narrative that things are only getting worse in the minds of the easily swayed. I believe it is absolutely tied to the push toward laxer voting processes and less faith in the outcome of voting, both aof which are destabilizing]

Yes over 700 healthcare workers in the US have died from Covid19, most of their infections occurring at work. We are sending them into a battle without the right equipment. The least we could do is try to minimize infection. We can point fingers at why we were under-equipped and under prepared but the real enemy here is a virus and I think we ought to help out the people trying to deal with the problem.

[And yet, if you wish to talk numbers to suggest veracity, what of the 1288 'healthcare professionals' who signed off on street protests by thousands of people violating social distancing and masking protocols as being somehow more necessary than said protocols? I question the sincerity of the pronouncements in light of the actions advocated]

I think the incarceration talk is counterproductive.

[If you think it is off the menu, pay attention to the news coverage of New Zealand's latest overreach in the name of 'safety']

I'm not sure where belief comes in. And who is the "they" that says it's so bad.
The administration has been trying to downplay the pandemic since January.

The crux is, who was closer to correct; the administration saying the pandemic was not serious enough to take actions that would seriously cripple our economy and country or the prophets of doom?

Why does no one ever advocate for culling the modelers that erred the most before they advocate for a new round of modeling. Science discards hypotheses that do not fit the facts

 

[HoughMade]

And the whole: "if your mask works, then why force me..."

I support choice in the matter, but that isn't an argument based upon anything real.

Neither is this:

 

[chipbennett]

This ^^^ is what has resulted in the complaining and virtue signaling, and mask shaming

Because some people wrongly claim it's a personal choice

This isn't a seatbelt or a helmet

This is more like carrying an unsafe weapon around

When you proclaim you are going to do as you darn well please and don't care about others, why be shocked when people think you are being selfish?

How is a healthy person walking around without a mask analogous to a person carrying an unsafe weapon around?

If you wish to compel that person to wear a mask, on the basis that the person might be an asymptomatic carrier, then you bear the burden of proving the likelihood, and severity, of that occurrence - because the default state is that the person enjoys the presumption of health, absent evidence (i.e. symptoms) otherwise.

Further, if it is your belief that a non-mask-wearer poses a risk to you, then you have the agency to mitigate that risk, by avoiding that person. (By all accounts, staying at least 6 feet away from that person nearly eliminates any chance of transmission from that person to you.) To the contrary of your assertion, your demand that this person wear a mask to mitigate your risk, based on your own risk assessment (regardless of the accuracy of that assessment) while you do not choose to implement the far simpler solution to mitigate that risk yourself, is the selfish act.

 

[JeepHammer]

Not that it will change any anti-mask minds...

First, the trajectory of a moderate initial infection followed by a severe reinfection suggests that this novel coronavirus might share some tendencies of other viruses such as dengue fever, where you can suffer more severe illness each time you contract the disease.

Second, despite scientific hopes for either antibody-mediated or cellular immunity, the severity of my patient’s second bout with Covid-19 suggests that such responses may not be as robust as we hope.

Third, many people may let their guard down after being infected, because they believe they are either immune or incapable of contributing to community spread.
As my patient’s case demonstrates, these assumptions risk both their own health and the health of those near them.

No mask, *YOU* are 'Typhoid Mary' until proven otherwise....

----------------------------

As to "Herd Immunity"

This wishful thinking is harmful. It risks incentivizing bad behavior. The rare but concerning “Covid parties,” where people are gathering to deliberately get infected with the virus, and large gatherings without masks, are considered by some to be the fastest way out of the pandemic, personally and as a community. Rather than trying to wish ourselves out of scientific realities, we must acknowledge the mounting evidence that challenges these ideas.

Source of quotes,
D. Clay Ackerly, MD, MSc, is an internal medicine and primary care physician practicing in Washington, DC. He has served both as a faculty member of Harvard Medical School and as Assistant Chief Medical Officer at the Massachusetts General Hospital. He has also held positions in the government and private sector, including the White House, the Food and Drug Administration, and, most recently, as Chief Medical Officer of Privia Health.

[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]https://www.vox....d-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity
---------------------

Inflammatory Syndrome in infected children...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/12/health/south-carolina-mis-c-coronavirus-children/index.html

So apparently long term health issues in children, studies continue, this is a NEW mutation of virus, so studies continue, so do infection rates...

Florida had more infections YESTERDAY, ONE SINGLE DAY than the entire country of South Korea or Taiwan which did mass testing immedately and took protections & disinfecting seriously...

------------------------------

Until enough people die and are crippled, the message will continue to be shouted down...
It's just too bad that so many Americans will die at the hands of other Americans, but this is the price we pay for allowing the divisionism, science denials, etc and don't call it out...

It murder/suicide by ignorance & stupidity, and I'm sure Russia & China are loving it...

 

[dusty88]

How is a healthy person walking around without a mask analogous to a person carrying an unsafe weapon around?

If you wish to compel that person to wear a mask, on the basis that the person might be an asymptomatic carrier, then you bear the burden of proving the likelihood, and severity, of that occurrence - because the default state is that the person enjoys the presumption of health, absent evidence (i.e. symptoms) otherwise.

Further, if it is your belief that a non-mask-wearer poses a risk to you, then you have the agency to mitigate that risk, by avoiding that person. (By all accounts, staying at least 6 feet away from that person nearly eliminates any chance of transmission from that person to you.) To the contrary of your assertion, your demand that this person wear a mask to mitigate your risk, based on your own risk assessment (regardless of the accuracy of that assessment) while you do not choose to implement the far simpler solution to mitigate that risk yourself, is the selfish act.

I'm not endorsing "control". I'm asking people to voluntarily do the right thing

And no it's not selfish because I'm not very likely going to be exposed. I have a job where I can distance. I can afford to quit work entirely and stay home on my farm. If I'm exposed it's going to be a very unusual situation or (as you suggest) me being less careful than otherwise. Or if I need unexpected urgent healthcare.

This isn't about me. It's about what's right for the community and what gets the economy moving more quickly. Arguing with the virus isn't helping.

 

[BugI02]

How does wearing a facial covering cause these things? Evidence?

By furthering the narrative that WuVid 19 is existential for a significant fraction of Americans, in turn using that to justify extraordinary changes to procedures that are the bedrock of our prosperity and election system. The mask is just a fig leaf
Sure, it will have some non-zero effect. So will healing crystals, or essential oils or any other placebo

The Paine Stewart lear jet decompression incapacitated everyone on board the aircraft (including trained crew members) in 15-20 seconds. Do you really think that that little drop down oxygen mask in the airliner cabinwill protect you in similar circumstances? Or are you simply encouraged to believe that it will, a way to keep you passive about a danger that can't really be mitigated much. Providing life jackets on North Sea ferries where survival time in the water is measured in minutes due to hypothermia is a similar exercise in deception

I don't know whether you are capable of seeing that your beliefs are manipulated all the time in order to make you feel 'safer', usually to encourage that feeling while you do something the manipulator is deriving income from. But if you can see that, why would you conclude that you could not be manipulated with acheiving power as the goal rather than revenue. Anytime you see the entire Greek Chorus that is the MSM singing the same song with the same lyrics, you should be more suspicious - not less

 

[chipbennett]

Actually , no it's not (though I'm not personally interested in chasing anyone down or pointing a finger at them)

Being concerned that someone is going to spread infection throughout society isn't selfish. You can argue but at least get some basics down.

Over 700 healthcare workers have died of Covid 19. Untold others have died from outbreaks in hospitals. People trying to be careful and do everything right are still put at risk by people who were (in some cases) unlucky themselves. But to choose to refuse an inconvenience that might reduce transmission during a pandemic is either ignorant or selfish. It's nothing else.

Being concerned that an arbitrary, apparently healthy person is going to spread infection through society is analogous to being concerned that a lawful firearm carrier is going to injure someone through negligent discharge or unlawful use of deadly force.

 

[dusty88]

Being concerned that an arbitrary, apparently healthy person is going to spread infection through society is analogous to being concerned that a lawful firearm carrier is going to injure someone through negligent discharge or unlawful use of deadly force.

Would you encourage everyone to use a holster to help minimize the chance of negligent discharge?

 

[chipbennett]

then please consider this most current information
"[FONT=&amp]Specifically, if 17.9% of infections are asymptomatic ([/FONT]5[FONT=&amp]), we found that the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections account for 48% and 3.4% of transmission, respectively ([/FONT]Fig. 1A[FONT=&amp]). Considering a greater asymptomatic proportion of 30.8% reported in another empirical study ([/FONT]6[FONT=&amp]), the presymptomatic phase and asymptomatic infections account for 47% and 6.6% of transmission, respectively ([/FONT]Fig. 1B[FONT=&amp]). Consequently, even immediate isolation of all symptomatic cases is insufficient to achieve control ([/FONT]Fig. 1[FONT=&amp]). Specifically, mean attack rates remain above 25% of the population when 17.9% of infections are asymptomatic and above 28% when 30.8% of infectious are asymptomatic."

[/FONT]https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/07/02/2008373117

Everything we know about this virus may be disproven later. Those who are MOST knowledgeable understand that. Part of that understanding of the unknown is that we don't know if it might be causing chronic disease, as well as the deaths.

I was one of the people that thought masks were silly in March. Maybe they will turn out to be silly. But as of now, there is both anecdoctal and partial scientific evidence that they help.

[FONT=&amp]
[/FONT]

So, this is something, and more data/detail than I've been able to find previously. Thank you for the link.

That said, it appears to be based on data estimation and extrapolation, rather than truly empirical data:

Translating clinical data on infectiousness and symptoms (1) to population-level epidemiological impact, our results indicate that the majority of transmission is attributable to people who are not exhibiting symptoms, either because they are still in the presymptomatic stage or the infection is asymptomatic (Fig. 1).

To me, this sort of study should be the basis for further, empirical study of the actual rate of presymptomatic/asymptomatic carriers and the actual rate of transmission from presymptomatic/asymptomatic carriers to non-carriers. This study, more or less, asserts certain assumptions as conclusions (which is what this type of study does). It is not asserting empirical evidence that supports/proves those assumptions.

 

[JeepHammer]

I was against the mask-wearing at first.
I know that most masks aren't filtering viral particles.
And I'm concerned that people touching their mask might actually increase transmission.

That's not strictly true...
*Some* masks are designed to stop the virus size particles...

With this PARTICULAR VIRUS, a tight weave, pure cotton mask works quite effectively.
The virus has a fatty, sticky layer on the outside, it STICKS to pure cotton, being 'Fuzzy' because it's short strands spun together, and the virus readily sticks to the cotton fibers.
Long synthetic strands don't have these fuzzy fiber tails sticking out of the thread, so not suitable for the job at hand.

Then, you simply kill it with Isopropyl Alcohol (60%, 120 proof or stronger) and reuse the mask.
I've been using 100% IPA for more than 3 months on cloth (bandana) type masks, and the alcohol does it's job, evaporates quite quickly.
Take mask off, spray mask & hands, wait for alcohol to evaporate, and it's clean hands on clean mask in about 1 minute.
Pretty simple...
(IPA being on hand since that's what I use with lanolin for case lube, reloading helped save my life! )

I use a bandana folded so it's about 4 layers,
An elastic head band (women use them, about 50¢ each) to hold it in place,
Bunches up on the sides of my nose, along jaw line for sealing, long enough to tuck in my shirt, and enough surface area to allow air to pass easily.
It also doesn't irritate my face like the bunched paper versions do...

I simply read the recommendations for what to use, found tight weave cotton (bandana), and found the headband to hold it in place (my wife's idea).

It has the added benefit of making me look like a old movie stage coach bandit!
(REACH FOR THE SKY! Throw down that strong box you varmint! )
The though of wearing my six shooters and boots/hat with it has crossed my mind, but this isn't exactly a SASS type of thing...

I just made it as simple & easy, while still observing (mostly) proper disinfection, easy peasy...

I do miss my multi-tool on my belt, replaced by a little spray bottle of 100% IPA, but my daily load out changed depending on the job at hand as long as I can remember, no big deal...
Bigger spray bottles in the door pockets of my vehicles, and right inside the doors at home.
100% IPA dries in under a minute, so it's just not that hard to open a door where I won't get infected, spray hands & mask, so I maintain my 'Clean Spaces' where I don't need the mask,
Clean & ready for next use.

Some people have it much worse than me, in constant contact with the misguided, misinformed public, heath care workers, etc.
I make pick-ups, clean myself, drive, deal with delivery, clean and drive.
When I stop for food, drinks, bathroom, clean and travel...
It's pretty simple, and since I was delivering to COVID hot zones from the very beginning of the outbreaks, I've been VERY lucky.
OR,
Prior Planning Prevents **** Poor Performance...
I look at it as a little of both luck and planning.


AND, I'm about to make the double drop delivery for a 'Sick' driver, wound up in the hospital in Indianapolis this morning, has two raw meat drops on the truck...
I don't know what he's 'Sick' with, all we know is fever & difficulty breathing,
BUT,
I'm taking my truck which gets wiped down inside before, and during each trip, and I'll be taking my masks, alcohol, etc...

If you live in/around Indy and eat chicken, just day 'Thanks' there is food on the shelves.

 

[chipbennett]

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30113-4.pdf (viral load during different phases of infection)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042606v1 contact tracing includes some asymptomatic cases

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32412896/ a cluster at fitness classes from a presymptomatic (or asymptomatic, not sure in this case)

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2008457 presymptomatic transmission in a nursing home

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32067043/ a cluster indicating possible transmission during the incubation period

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-3012 a review paper on asymptomatic transmission

Thank you! I will give these a read.