Statement on future availability of ammunition and reloading components
5/20/2024
5/20/2024
Since the announcement that Alliant will not be selling powder until further notice, I have been inundated with questions. I am releasing this statement to give a brief description of the situation, along with my personal opinions of what this may mean for future availability.
It’s been over 4 years since I have had to make a statement like this due to world events causing drastic market changes. I issued the last one on 3/27/2020, at the beginning of the COVID shortages.
To understand why we are having these problems, you have to examine different aspects of the situation. While a global shortage of nitrocellulose is cited for the ending of all powder sales (and this is true), there are many reasons for this shortage.
Russia and China are 2 of the top producers of nitrocellulose in the world. Russia has been IMPORTING nitrocellulose in recent years to fuel the demand for munitions for the war in Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine combined are firing roughly 10,000 to 12,000 rounds of artillery shells EVERY DAY. Each shell has approximately 21 pounds of gunpowder. That is somewhere around 1.5 million pounds of gunpowder per week, or more.
Last October, the Hamas attack on Israel would be the beginning of yet another drawn out armed conflict that will consume large amounts of powder.
Beyond the war between Russia and Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza, there are currently over 110 armed conflicts around the globe.
Armed conflicts cost a lot of money. That’s why the US House, Senate and President all approved a $95 billion military spending bill for more guns, missiles, bombs, ammo, etc. Nearly $61 billion to Ukraine, over $26 billion to Israel (in addition to the 3.8 billion that the US sends Israel annually), 2.4 billion for “regional US military operations” and more than 8 billion for the Indo-Pacific to counter the Chinese threat to Taiwan. The US is sending its aging munitions that have been stockpiled for decades to its allies, and buying new weapons to replace its depleted stocks. The amounts of munitions I’m describing are staggering. The US has previously had such a huge amount of Stinger missiles in its stockpiles that Raytheon has not manufactured them in over 20 years. They are now refitting factories to begin production again. Out of the $95 billion, the majority will go to US weapons manufacturers for munition contracts to replace what is being sent to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and whatever “regional US military operations” they decide to conduct.
When you examine shortages of gunpowder for handloaders available on the civilian market, you must first look at the source of these products. For all intents and purposes, ALL of the powder sold on the civilian market comes from companies that supply products to military forces around the globe.
I’ll start with Alliant, since they are the first company (unfortunately, I suspect they won’t be the last) to completely stop selling powder on the civilian market. Alliant is owned by Vista, and Vista also owns Federal, Remington, CCI, Speer and Hevi-Shot (among many other brands). This means that when there is a higher demand for ammunition, much of the available powder may be diverted to these other subsidiaries.
Alliant rifle powders come from three sources:
Eurenco Bofors in Sweden (most Reloder grades)
Nitrochemie Wimmis in Switzerland, half owned by the large German-Swiss RUAG armaments group (minority of Reloder powders such as 17, 33 and 50)
General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems, St. Marks Powder Co. Florida (ball type grades only, primarily the Power Pro range).
Bofors and Nitrochemie are currently fully occupied in military contracts and are not supplying handloading grades to any great extent (or maybe at all) right now for the foreseeable future. (Most Nitrochemie handloading products and the majority of their output to this market are sold in Europe under the Reload Swiss brand name; Alliant had asked for more in the past in more normal times and been refused as the company had no spare capacity.)
Not all the military contracts are for Ukraine. Any European country that cares for its security is rearming and increasing ammunition stocks right now. This applies particularly to Sweden, Denmark and Finland who (understandably) feel extremely threatened by their Russian neighbors after February 2022. Sweden and Finland have joined NATO as well. That's where Norma (also Eurenco Bofors), Alliant and Nitrochemie output is going.
When you examine the sources of powder for other companies like Hodgdon (which also markets Winchester, IMR, Accurate and Ramshot powders), Shooters World and Vihtavuori, you will realize that all of these companies also manufacture military products.
Some of the manufacturers that sell to Hodgdon (Hodgdon does not make powder) include Australian Defense Industries, General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems – Canada and St Marks Powder (a subsidiary of General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems) in Florida.
Shooters World powder is made by Lovex, in the Czech Republic
Vihtavuori is owned by Nammo (who also owns Berger, Lapua and SK) in Finland. Nammo also make rocket motors for AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, in addition to other products with military applications.
You can see a common theme. All of these companies also supply the military industrial complex in the US and in other countries around the world. This means that the more global conflict and unrest that exists in the world, the more difficult it will be for us to get these products.
While the announcement from Vista has sent shockwaves through the industry, anyone who has discussed the subject with me in depth knows that I have been expecting this, and much worse, for some time. In my opinion, the worst is yet to come.
During COVID, we saw shortages that this country has not seen since WW2. In some ways, the supply chain never fully recovered, and is still suffering from these effects. While some people had the impression that I was not getting much stock during COVID (because of the fact that the shelves were usually mostly empty), nothing could be further from the truth. The fact is, we were getting in several pallets every week, more inventory that we had ever previously received in such a short period of time. This inventory quickly sold out as soon as it hit the shelf, creating the impression for some that we were not getting inventory. During these times, we were forced to search for new suppliers, and pay much higher prices. This was due to increased demand, not because of decreased supply, as some people had speculated. The fact is, there was a bigger supply than ever before, and prices still increased to unbelievable levels.
If prices can reach those levels while these products are available at higher-than-normal volumes, what will be the consequence as this supply is restricted due to global military demand for weapons? My concern is that other companies might stop selling these products, and they may become completely unavailable. If this happens, we would be completely unable to restock. If sales increased to the same levels they did during the COVID lockdowns, I would only have enough ammo and reloading supplies to last for a few days. In less than a week, the shelves would be empty.
While I can’t predict what will happen, I am very concerned for the state of the industry. I recommend that everyone make sure that they have what they are gong to need in the near future, as the supply chain is uncertain.
