brchixwing
Sharpshooter
Sorry if this topic is beaten to death but I've had this discussion at least 20 times this summer with friends and gun deal counter parties, felt like ranting. I am personally very grateful of this fantastic gun & ammo glut, the state of the Gun Market is AWESOME. Gun prices have finally normalized after a half decade since Sandy Hook. We finally mean reverted after an insane period of peak regulatory fear driven demand coupled with a number of tragedies and ISIS headlines.
Gun prices are so low that we smile and go WTF when we see some deals, I know at least a dozen guys that got Shields with $75 rebates (myself included for a 45 shield) & I just got the same rebate on a C308. Ammo prices are even more awesome, I've been consistently paying about $0.18/rd shipped for quality 9mm factory ammo (SGammo.com , targetsportsusa.com , even brownells!), and have even been plinking with 300BO & 308. On top of massive inventory destocking, the strong dollar gave cushion for ammo co's like Magtech from Brazil, S&B from Czech Repub, Fiocchi from Italy, PPU from Serbia etc. who have their costs in some struggling currency and sales in US dollars. AmmoSeek.com & SlickGuns.com have been very entertaining!
Looking ahead to future gun valuations (+2-3 years)... at this point in time general consensus is that Trump won't just walk into re-election... which means we will see gun prices inflect in the next few years, when whichever commie Bernie Sanders protege steps up to the plate to face off with #45. Polls are pretty BS because they didn't call #45's election but the latest are <40 as of Charlottesville & Afghanistan did not help (fingers crossed real tight for tax reform). Your $250 Shield after rebate might be worth $500 on the next craze, your $500 AR might be worth $1000, which would be a 100% unlevered returns over 3 years.
In the near term there is no catalyst to prices sharply inflecting, it will be a "U" shaped rise off the floor that probably looks more like a bunch of "M" with different promotions... and then a sharp step function in 2-3 years when we get fear of left wing leadership. The secondary market is still crowded with tons of independent speculators that Hilary/Obama-hoarded both guns & ammo and are now strapped for cash. Mom & pop operations are hating but joining in on the heavy promotional environment, especially with gun buyers now getting more comfortable with E-Commerce... BudsGunShop.com is basically Amazon & tax + shipping free! (Columbus, IN's Watson Chambers offers free FFL transfers, amazing team that wants to help us out) Bigger Boxes are still rationalizing, Gander bankruptcy, Bass Pro Swallowing Cabela's, Sportsmans Warehouse now focusing on smaller stores all mean there was too much capacity in the system. Retailers and manufacturers keep pointing to the sports shooting scene gaining traction, more women and youth shooters, but we all know they aren't the ones buying a gun every other paycheck. In any case, we are somewhere around the floor in prices, as noted by the endless $400 AR posts on here.
In summary, the trough has made shooting awesomely affordable again, we are fortunate. For speculators, the glut has created an opportunity if you can have your money tied up for 2-3 years.
Gun prices are so low that we smile and go WTF when we see some deals, I know at least a dozen guys that got Shields with $75 rebates (myself included for a 45 shield) & I just got the same rebate on a C308. Ammo prices are even more awesome, I've been consistently paying about $0.18/rd shipped for quality 9mm factory ammo (SGammo.com , targetsportsusa.com , even brownells!), and have even been plinking with 300BO & 308. On top of massive inventory destocking, the strong dollar gave cushion for ammo co's like Magtech from Brazil, S&B from Czech Repub, Fiocchi from Italy, PPU from Serbia etc. who have their costs in some struggling currency and sales in US dollars. AmmoSeek.com & SlickGuns.com have been very entertaining!
Looking ahead to future gun valuations (+2-3 years)... at this point in time general consensus is that Trump won't just walk into re-election... which means we will see gun prices inflect in the next few years, when whichever commie Bernie Sanders protege steps up to the plate to face off with #45. Polls are pretty BS because they didn't call #45's election but the latest are <40 as of Charlottesville & Afghanistan did not help (fingers crossed real tight for tax reform). Your $250 Shield after rebate might be worth $500 on the next craze, your $500 AR might be worth $1000, which would be a 100% unlevered returns over 3 years.
In the near term there is no catalyst to prices sharply inflecting, it will be a "U" shaped rise off the floor that probably looks more like a bunch of "M" with different promotions... and then a sharp step function in 2-3 years when we get fear of left wing leadership. The secondary market is still crowded with tons of independent speculators that Hilary/Obama-hoarded both guns & ammo and are now strapped for cash. Mom & pop operations are hating but joining in on the heavy promotional environment, especially with gun buyers now getting more comfortable with E-Commerce... BudsGunShop.com is basically Amazon & tax + shipping free! (Columbus, IN's Watson Chambers offers free FFL transfers, amazing team that wants to help us out) Bigger Boxes are still rationalizing, Gander bankruptcy, Bass Pro Swallowing Cabela's, Sportsmans Warehouse now focusing on smaller stores all mean there was too much capacity in the system. Retailers and manufacturers keep pointing to the sports shooting scene gaining traction, more women and youth shooters, but we all know they aren't the ones buying a gun every other paycheck. In any case, we are somewhere around the floor in prices, as noted by the endless $400 AR posts on here.
In summary, the trough has made shooting awesomely affordable again, we are fortunate. For speculators, the glut has created an opportunity if you can have your money tied up for 2-3 years.