New Research Paper from John Lott, et al

[Kirk Freeman]

A look at concealed carry permit holders across the 50 states.

Concealed Carry Permit Holders Across the United States by John R. Lott, John E Whitley, Rebekah C. Riley :: SSRN

 

[jwh20]

I really like this quote from the article:

Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that police officers are convicted.

I'm sure Mr. Bloomberg would love to see that statistic disappear!

 

[pudly]

John Lott is one of the heroes of the gun rights movement. He is an economist who started out to write about the effects on guns on US society, expecting to them to be negative. But when he collected the info, he found out that firearm ownership was actually associated with positive results. Rather than lying, misinterpreting, or dropping the subject as some have, he ended up writing the book "More Guns, Less Crime".

Since that time, he has become an outspoken gun rights proponent, both in media and further writings. He also started the Crime Prevention Research Center which continues to dig up statistical info that we end up using as factual counterarguments against the anti-gunners (like the "coincidence" of increasing firearm ownership in recent decades and declining violent crime). CPRC has a lot less money to work with than Bloomberg's group and depends primarily on contributions, so you might want to consider helping.

 

[eldirector]

Downloaded.

This is great information to arm ourselves with.

 

[Tyler-The-Piker]

Well...that was succinct

 

[jamil]

It should be no surprise that people who are willing to wade through the bureaucracy to obtain a permit/license to be "legal", actually respect the law. No surprise there.

But should the national argument ever advance to the stage of constitutional carry, this becomes a point against.

 

[pudly]

It should be no surprise that people who are willing to wade through the bureaucracy to obtain a permit/license to be "legal", actually respect the law. No surprise there.

The reactions to "More Guns, Less Crime" by anti-gunners would argue otherwise.

But should the national argument ever advance to the stage of constitutional carry, this becomes a point against.

By that point, there will be plenty of constitutional carry states and observing the results there will provide a good basis for arguing the upsides/downsides of national concealed carry.

 

[foszoe]

Haven't read it yet, but my gut says this could be used against us in an argument. ...

i.e.

So what you are saying is the more hoops you have to jump through to get a permit, the more likely you are to be law abiding? Well I think so too, that's why I am proposing one more hoop....

 

[pudly]

Haven't read it yet, but my gut says this could be used against us in an argument. ...

i.e.

So what you are saying is the more hoops you have to jump through to get a permit, the more likely you are to be law abiding? Well I think so too, that's why I am proposing one more hoop....

And the counterargument is trivial. The hoops you propose will negatively impact legal gun owners, but will provide no additional protection against lawbreakers or reduce crime.

 

[2A_Tom]

Quote Originally Posted by pudly

Quote Originally Posted by jamil
But should the national argument ever advance to the stage of constitutional carry, this becomes a point against.

By that point, there will be plenty of constitutional carry states and observing the results there will provide a good basis for arguing the upsides/downsides of national concealed carry.


I Recently had a conversation with a NRA rep at Cabela's, and when the conversation turned to Constitutional Carry he tensed up and said he was against it because then bad guys could carry and there would be no way to know who was good or bad.

I didn't think of this at the time, bad guys already carry and we don't know who they are.

My argument was that the states that currently have Constitutional Carry don't seem to be having problems, My only problem with SO CALLED Constitutional Carry states is that most only allow Open Constitutional Carry, whin ithelf is an infringement and will discourage many from carrying at all.

 

[pudly]

Wow. This paper really is a worthwhile read. A few nuggets (parts in blue are my comments and/or rewording of the report):

The total dollar costs of getting a permit in Illinois is about $450.
...
Each $10 increase in fees reduces the percent of adults with permits by about a half a percentage point.

During the eight years from 1999 to 2007, the number of permits increased by about 240,000 per year. During the next four years, the number of permits surged by 850,000 per year. Then from the end of 2011 to 2013 the yearly increase rose by 1,550,000. And during the last year the increase has continued to accelerate to 1,700,000.

Giving government officials discretion in who gets permits (aka may issue), reduces the percent of adults with get permits by more than two‐thirds.

Gun ownership is becoming more "diverse". Since 2007, permits for women has increased by 270% and for men by 156%. Some evidence suggests that permit holding by minorities is increasing more than twice as fast as for whites.

The stats are difficult to nail down, but based on their analysis: Police are 1/37th as likely to commit crime as the general public. Firearms permit holders are 1/6th as likely to commit crimes as police.

 

[Kirk Freeman]

I Recently had a conversation with a NRA rep at Cabela's, and when the conversation turned to Constitutional Carry he tensed up and said he was against it because then bad guys could carry and there would be no way to know who was good or bad.

An NRA Rep? Who? Which Cabela's and when was this? Details please, I'd like to know more.

 

[KUJO2388]

Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that**are convicted.

Wow. That is an awesome stat.

 

[cce1302]

Wow. This paper really is a worthwhile read. A few nuggets (parts in blue are my comments and/or rewording of the report):

I didn't go back to the paper to check, but I believe in the case of Illinois, it's the permit to own (FOID) not to carry.

 

[pudly]

I didn't go back to the paper to check, but I believe in the case of Illinois, it's the permit to own (FOID) not to carry.

I was using a generic term for licensing. Illinois has CCLs (Concealed Carry Licenses) for carry in addition to FOIDs for simple firearm/ammo purchases. The point isn't the semantics. It is that all of the obstacles including cost suppress the number of people who carry. Illinois is simply the most egregious example.

 

[Alamo]

Concealed handgun permit holders are extremely law-abiding. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of misdemeanors or felonies at one-sixth the rate that**are convicted.

Wow. That is an awesome stat.

In Texas, by law, the Department of Public Safety keeps and publishes statistics on convictions of those who possess concealed handgun licenses. This was embedded in the law from the beginning, no doubt at the behest of the doubters and the blood-in-the-streets crowd so every one could see how deranged the license holders were. Of course it failed spectacularly, and the highly positive stats have been well publicized in subsequent legislative sessions. In the last legislature when the MDA types were ranting in committee hearings about the open carry and campus carry bills, the TSRA and NRA witnesses merely mentioned the stats, and all the legislators on the committee, even the "antis", immediately nodded their heads -- they all know.

Interestingly, there does not seem to be a single collection point for convictions of peace officers in Texas. One of the state bodies does have a website of peace officer commission revocations, but that's not exactly the same as all convictions. A few years ago one of the TSRA people (also an NRA Director), Charles Cotton (who has long been a champion of 2A laws in Texas) filed a series of Open Records Act requests to collect this data. IIRC when he got it all together, he found that as expected, peace officers were convicted at a rate that was small fraction of the general adult population of Texas -- and CHLs were convicted at a rate less than half of the rate for peace officers. This was of course well briefed to the Legislature.

So John Lott's findings do not surprise me. I haven't read the paper yet, I will be interested to see where he got his data for police officers.

 

[cce1302]

I was using a generic term for licensing. Illinois has CCLs (Concealed Carry Licenses) for carry in addition to FOIDs for simple firearm/ammo purchases. The point isn't the semantics. It is that all of the obstacles including cost suppress the number of people who carry. Illinois is simply the most egregious example.

I think I read your summary wrong. I was thinking that it all applied to Illinois, going back to 1997 (hence the FOID rather than CCL comment), but I realize the 1.7 million/year statistic must be national.

 

[2A_Tom]

An NRA Rep? Who? Which Cabela's and when was this? Details please, I'd like to know more.

Hammond, signing up new members. Good guy, i see him often, I was surprised at his opinion, but I believe it was strictly personal. we talked and he was very open to my opinion. You have to understand we live in the ghetto.

 

[GodFearinGunTotin]

According to the paper, between 1 in 9 and 1 in 8 people in Indiana have "permits".

We need to step it up though...I hate losing to Alabama--in anything.

 

[KellyinAvon]

According to the paper, between 1 in 9 and 1 in 8 people in Indiana have "permits".

We need to step it up though...I hate losing to Alabama--in anything.

Amen, losing to SD is even worse. If you take out all the Air Force types at Grand Forks and Ellsworth and exclude Sturgis there's what?? 23 or 24 people??