I need to start Carrying a Spare Magazine...

[MinuteMan47]

Some good tips on carrying a spare mag.

My thought is that the percentages just don't require it.

Chance that I'll ever have draw my weapon = 1 in 1000.
Chance that I'll ever have to fire my weapon = 1 in 10 instances of having to draw
Chance that I'll have to expend more than 17rds = 1 in 100 instances of having to fire OR
Chance that my carry piece will have a malfunction = 1 in 1000 instances of having to fire (1 failure in a 1000 rounds, a pretty conservative estimate, really considering that a not all failure require a mag change, just tap rack bang)

So we're looking at about a literally 1 in a million chance of having to fire more than 17rds, and 1 in 10 million of having a malfunction.

If that kind of probability requires that I carry another mag, I should also start carrying a lightning rod. Chances of being struck by lightning are estimated something along the lines of 1:700,000.

You forgot this...

 

[Rob377]

You forgot this...

"my thought is"=

Worth every penny that you paid for it, too!

 

[bwframe]

My thought is that the percentages just don't require it.

Devil's advocate - If you're strictly going on percentages, why would you even mess with owning a handgun, let alone carrying one?

 

[Dogman]

Comp .... just a thought ......... bandoleer!

 

[Rob377]

Devil's advocate - If you're strictly going on percentages, why would you even mess with owning a handgun, let alone carrying one?

A fair argument, sure.
Based on the numbers above, there's still a pretty substantial chance that a handgun will come in handy. Plus, they're really fun to shoot.

1 in 1000 is a remote chance, but not so remote that I would say it's inconsequential. We're talking several orders of magnitude in difference here. Once we get into the high 100,000s range, (like lightning) I can't see a whole lot of reason to get all worked up about it. I can understand why people might, and carrying an extra mag is a pretty easy thing to do. My only point (which is why italicized "require" for emphasis) is that a 1 in a million chance doesn't really give rise to a "need."

If I'm parsing things too closely, just let me know

 

[MinuteMan47]

...a 1 in a million chance...

Sooooo, you're telling me there's a chance...!!!

 

[MinuteMan47]

A fair argument, sure.
Based on the numbers above, there's still a pretty substantial chance that a handgun will come in handy. Plus, they're really fun to shoot.

1 in 1000 is a remote chance, but not so remote that I would say it's inconsequential. We're talking several orders of magnitude in difference here. Once we get into the high 100,000s range, (like lightning) I can't see a whole lot of reason to get all worked up about it. I can understand why people might, and carrying an extra mag is a pretty easy thing to do. My only point (which is why italicized "require" for emphasis) is that a 1 in a million chance doesn't really give rise to a "need."

If I'm parsing things too closely, just let me know

What are your sources for these percentages? Or, have they just been fabricated to try and help make your point?

I also didn't realize that a reason to carry for personal protection was because a gun was fun to shoot...

 

[Rob377]

What are your sources for these percentages? Or, have they just been fabricated to try and help make your point?

I also didn't realize that a reason to carry for personal protection was because a gun was fun to shoot...

the question was "why do I mess with owning a handgun," actually.

But you're right. Everyone is nearly certain to be engaged in a prolonged firefight where they will need massive amounts of ammo. Happens every day. In fact, they should probably have a rifle on them.

If you've got better numbers, I'd be happy to hear them and reconsider my thoughts on the matter.

 

[youngda9]

Devil's advocate - If you're strictly going on percentages, why would you even mess with owning a handgun, let alone carrying one?

Because you've gotta draw a line somewhere.

I don't think a spare mag is necessary for citizens. LEO and Soldiers, of course...but not the common man.

I personally don't carry a spare mag. I have 13 rounds and a clean, 100% reliable pistol....should be enough for anything that comes my way. Besides, I don't want to hang around somewhere where I'll need the 14th shot...I should have moved out by then.

 

[MinuteMan47]

the question was "why do I mess with owning a handgun," actually.

Actually, here is the quote...

Devil's advocate - If you're strictly going on percentages, why would you even mess with owning a handgun, let alone carrying one?

 

[Comp]

I like, i like. You know dogman, one of these days we need to have a beer....

Comp .... just a thought ......... bandoleer!

 

[Rob377]

Comp .... just a thought ......... bandoleer!

 

[bwframe]

...100% reliable pistol....

This is where you are mistaken. There is no such thing!

 

[singlestacksig]

Some good tips on carrying a spare mag.

My thought is that the percentages just don't require it.

fire OR
Chance that my carry piece will have a malfunction = 1 in 1000 instances of having to fire (1 failure in a 1000 rounds, a pretty conservative estimate, really considering that a not all failure require a mag change, just tap rack bang)

So we're looking at about a literally 1 in a million chance of having to fire more than 17rds, and 1 in 10 million of having a malfunction.

If that kind of probability requires that I carry another mag, I should also start carrying a lightning rod. Chances of being struck by lightning are estimated something along the lines of 1:700,000.

how much competition have you seen/ done? I can't think of a single match that i did not see someone with a malfunction.. they happen a lot more often then your odds... your gun may seem to feed fine when you are up right and shooting 2 handed..

 

[Rob377]

how much competition have you seen/ done? I can't think of a single match that i did not see someone with a malfunction.. they happen a lot more often then your odds... your gun may seem to feed fine when you are up right and shooting 2 handed..

Sure. There's some selection bias there, though. Competitions are a unique set of circumstances that aren't wholly representative. All kinds of mods, compensators, crappy reloads, powder puff target rounds, etc, etc, etc, which would increase the amount of failures one would see.

What I have experienced is beat to crap Berettas running 99.9% even when firing one handed, from prone, sideways around a barricade, and so on and so forth. Former USMC 8152 and that .1% of failures I did see were all fixed with tap rack bang, no mag change needed. Except that one slide that flew apart.... but a spare mag wouldn't have helped there.

Yeah, it could happen. And lightning could strike me too, but I'm not worried it about too much.

 

[bwframe]

Yeah, it could happen. And lightning could strike me too, but I'm not worried it about too much.

I'm guessin' you don't have any smoke detectors or fire extinguishers around either, eh?

 

[Rob377]

I'm guessin' you don't have any smoke detectors or fire extinguishers around either, eh?

If there is even the slightest possibility of something happening, I'm prepared.
just Last year I made the decision to trust my life on the street to Second Chance body armor. I got the level IIa because it stops the most rounds. plus I got the Trauma Plate for the front.

What scares me is that, although I can fit an extra trauma plate in the front, I cannot fit a second one in back. As of late I have taken to duct-taping a second trauma plate to the area of my back where the heart and vital organs are located. Then I put my vest on.

Here is the questions. The ducttape solution, although tactically sound, is hot and painful to remove. I would like to go to the single-plate solution in back. What I am worried about is repeated hits to that area with .308 ammunition. I have a high-risk security job and I fear that I would be the target for repeated long-distance shots to my back.

 

[bwframe]

What I am worried about is repeated hits to that area with .308 ammunition.

You'll be fine, just do what this guy does:

...I should have moved out by then.

 

[singlestacksig]

Sure. There's some selection bias there, though. Competitions are a unique set of circumstances that aren't wholly representative. All kinds of mods, compensators, crappy reloads, powder puff target rounds, etc, etc, etc, which would increase the amount of failures one would see.

What I have experienced is beat to crap Berettas running 99.9% even when firing one handed, from prone, sideways around a barricade, and so on and so forth. Former USMC 8152 and that .1% of failures I did see were all fixed with tap rack bang, no mag change needed. Except that one slide that flew apart.... but a spare mag wouldn't have helped there.

Yeah, it could happen. And lightning could strike me too, but I'm not worried it about too much.

IDPA & USPSA production class is shot with your street rig, no race guns or target loads.
you may have seen great reliability with the M92 & GI hard ball ammo.. but most people are not choosing to carry that..
one does not HAVE to carry a spare mag. but it is foolish to advise someone they never need to..

 

[Rob377]

IDPA & USPSA production class is shot with your street rig, no race guns or target loads.
you may have seen great reliability with the M92 & GI hard ball ammo.. but most people are not choosing to carry that..
one does not HAVE to carry a spare mag. but it is foolish to advise someone they never need to..

Street rig, but with trigger work allowed, like lightened striker springs (light primer strikes) and so on and so forth. reloads are still allowed, so anyone using a tight chamber without a factory crimp die is more likely see failures to extract and such, minor power factor is all powder puff stuff. Even the bare minimum PF for major is pretty light.

I'm not saying "don't carry a spare." I'm saying that one NEEDS to carry a spare about as much as they need to carry a lightning rod. Yes, you may be that 1 in a million that does need it, and you may be that 1 in 700,000 that gets struck by lightning too. If it makes you feel better to be ready for that super-remote possibility, more power to you. People like to buy lottery ticket with even slimmer odds and there's not a darn thing wrong with it.

My thought is, if I don't need to carry things for all the other 1:x00,000 chance bad things that could happen, no need for me to do it for this scenario either. If one is going to all worked about something like that, there are lot of things more likely to happen that we choose to ignore.