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Study: H1N1 May Be Less Severe than Feared Liveshots
Study: H1N1 May Be Less Severe than Feared Liveshots
Study: H1N1 May Be Less Severe than Feared
December 8, 2009 - 4:08 PM | by: Jonathan Serrie The theoretical worst case scenarios associated with this year's H1N1 pandemic taught us not to take influenza for granted. However, a new study suggests the worst case scenario for H1N1 may be only slightly more deadly than a typical outbreak of seasonal flu -- and, in a best case scenario, much less.
In the study, published in the Public Library of Science journal, "PLoS Medicine," researchers analyzed extensive data from outbreaks in Milwaukee and New York from April to July to get a more accurate picture of the risks associated with the virus.
Among their major findings, approximately 1 in 70 people with symptoms of pandemic H1N1 required hospitalization. About 1 in 400 symptomatic cases required treatment. And approximately 1 in 2,000 people who had H1N1 symptoms died.
Estimates of severity fell even lower (by 7 to 9 times) when researchers took into account a New York telephone survey in which respondents self-reported incidence of flu-like illness in their families.
The study's authors conclude, "These estimates suggest that an autumn-winter pandemic wave of pH1N1 with comparable severity per case could lead to a number of deaths in the range from considerably below that associated with seasonal influenza to slightly higher."
Each year, seasonal flu claims an estimated 36 thousand lives in this country. The elderly are at highest risk. Whereas, H1N1 disproportionately affects people under 65.
Public health officials say vaccination is the best way to avoid getting influenza and spreading it to others. After weeks of shortages, H1N1 vaccine supplies are plentiful enough that some states and municipalities have expanded immunization campaigns beyond the groups at highest risk for the disease. See my related blog on vaccine distribution.