Coronovirus IV

[HoughMade]

Give this a test drive

https://www.realclearscience.com/ar...g_our_lessons_from_asymptomatic_covid-19.html
Learning Our Lessons From Asymptomatic Covid-19

Then ask yourself, if a mask is filtering larger particles but allowing aerosol sized particles to escape, in a closed room with low air exchange (like virtually all large air conditioned office and public buildings) is it protecting the people wearing them or making it more likely the will get a case. And if the general public knew how sketchy the protection provided by the talisman is, might they make a different decision about placing themselves in that situation

I checked the guy out because I had never heard of him. He has a clinic in the Hawaiian islands. Full disclosure his website mentions non-western medicine and his wife is part of the practice and a Naturopathic physician (NMD). Despite some misgivings, the guy struck me as a kind of medical TLex - a talented amateur attempting to make sense of conflicting data and arrive at a conclusion that he believes in. You know, kind of what mask skeptics want to do

Fascinating article.

 

[Leadeye]

Stuff like this makes me think that when they write the history of covid -19 in the future, it will say that nobody had a good handle on it, although many said otherwise at the time.

 

[HoughMade]

Stuff like this makes me think that when they write the history of covid -19 in the future, it will say that nobody had a good handle on it, although many said otherwise at the time.

I don't of many people who thinks that anyone has a "good handle on it".

 

[BugI02]

Interesting, but he overlooked two ways (that I could think of off hand) that high asymptotic rates in certain populations could come about:

1. Testing... the enclosed populations he discussed with the high and astronomically high asymptotic rates were in prisons (and still high, but less so cruise ships). But both shared one characteristic that is different than the general populations he was comparing against... 100% testing. One hypothesis is that there are a lot more asymptotic folks out there, they just never have cause to be tested. As we test more and find more... why does the CFR go down? We're finding proportionally more asymptomatic and mild cases, IMO, than when the hurdle for getting a test was very high symptom-wise, bias selecting out asymptomatic/mild cases.

2. One area of study is looking at a significant chunk of the gen-pop has T-cells reactive to SARS-COV-2, but they've never had COVID nor have the antibodies. The theory is that a different coronavirus, either a strain of one of the 4 lines of common cold or something else had enough protein similarity to equip them with some effective T-cell immunity, so their immune systems got an early start. They weere seeing, IIRC, 30-40% and postulated THAT might be genesis for the asymptomatic/mild cases. So if that percentage of the general population had that, how effective do you think a cold would be in spreading in a prison? I could be all wrong about this since it's still being investigated, but my gut tells me this might be the missing piece of the puzzle - and it fits both with NYC experience and with high asymptomatic in enormously crowded prisons where everyone ends up with the same cold. (one test for this would be of longer term residents versus new arrivals (who came after the cold had already swept through) i.e. a time series.

I think you're kind of missing the point. Those cohorts have an asymptomatic percentage far above the accepted GenPop percentage. The interesting supposition is; if your initial exposure is to a very low viral load does it predispose people to a mild or symptomless case? In that case, for people without co-morbidities, we could possibly use controlled exposures as a possible stop gap to establish herd immunity while waiting for a vaccine - kind of like cowpox innoculation was used at the dawn of virology to stimulate immunity to smallpox while drastically reducing the risk exposure to the target disease would have caused. At the very least, further study could inform additional intervention into indoor environments to lessen the chance that people forced to spend time in them would aquire a serious case

I don't quite see the testing supposition. If 65% of all drivers are statisticaly expected to be speeders, I don't see how more police radar speed checking could result in percentages significantly higher than the norm

Variability in viral load at initial exposure could explain #2 also, the idea that if your immune system only has to rev up enough to control 100s of infected cells rather than 1000s it may have greater success at achieving the upper hand

 

[foszoe]

I can and do believe my own eyes standing right in front of the mirror. Like I said, this is a fairly valid test. Had my setup failed, I would have reported it and went back to the drawing board. It didn't... it passed better than I thought it would.



Nope, only faint wisps, a very, very small portion of the vape came through the mask with my full yowie setup AND than was with me "blowing" the vape out like I normally would, not just a normal breathing exhale. Any vapers or former smokers know what I mean, to everyone else, hopefully it's clear.



Only exhausted a fraction of the vape, a significant fraction, out the sides of the mask without the yowie. This was not surprising as when I fit my surgical mask alone, breathing cases the mask to expand/contract on exhale/inhale.



See my yowie recommendation above... problem and fix.



Long ago we were debating if fabric masks could help or not and trying to divine from tea leave studies if fabric masks helped, and if so how much. We did not then have scientific body measuring the filtering effectiveness of fabric masks, and more importantly, now that they are publicly widely available, surgical masks IN THE SAME WAY N95 masks are measured.

That did not exist then... it does now. The science is in... masks other than N95s can do a very good job of filtering IF fit a sealed to the face so you are breathing through them, not around them.

The American Chemical Society Nano Journal:
Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252





If you want to believe that, you are absolutely free to do so... but that is all it is, a belief.

Can you do this again but this time post it on YouTube so I can use it as evidence to support my preconceptions?

 

[foszoe]

So you expected him to drain the swamp in 4 years, in what has taken multiple decades to get where they are now.

The next time you stop to get gas for your vehicle, I expect you to to fuel, do a 4 tire change, clean your windshield and still pay for your purchase in 17 seconds.

Trump needs more help, he's pulling on the plug, the creatures under the drain in the swamp are pulling on that plug mighty hard to keep it from being pulled and full.

If he cant do it in 4 why should I believe he can do it in 8?

 

[NKBJ]

If he cant do it in 4 why should I believe he can do it in 8?

Almost everyone's expectations are based upon incorrect models because the biggest most difficult problem most anyone will tackle is figuring out where their own Tom Foolery is the most vulnerable.

There's big money at stake every day depending on making a fool of the American public. That's us.

 

[hkflyer]

yeah the gov is shelling out tons of money to "solve this problem"

 

[BugI02]

If he cant do it in 4 why should I believe he can do it in 8?

Because the alternative is a doddering old man who won't do it at all

 

[bobzilla]

Because the alternative is a doddering old man who won't do it at all

Ding ding ding we have a winner

 

[Bennettjh]

Because the alternative is a doddering old man who won't do it at all

Since Trump "failed", let's give it to Biden. ​I'm sure he'll be a friend to gun owners.

 

[foszoe]

Because the alternative is a doddering old man who won't do it at all

So are you saying he deserves 12?

 

[T.Lex]

Hey T.Lex! Guess what? [STRIKE]CDC[/STRIKE] Trump's CDC has now reversed it's recent stance on not testing asymptomatic people. Darn that Trump!

Cheese 'n rice... is it any wonder people don't believe a word out of these peoples' mouths? Apparently they received enough backlash that they decided to reverse their position. Tell us again how this is not politically driven? Either it was a good idea or not. "Backlash" should have nothing to do with it if they're basing their decisions on science. It's quite obvious that they're not.

Oh and lest anyone think it's because "the situation has changed as we learn more"... It took only THREE DAYS for them to change course... again. So what new scientific breakthrough occurred in the last 3 days?

I may not be completely tracking, but I get the feeling you aren't actually asking me those questions.

 

[BugI02]

So are you saying he deserves 12?

If he does as much good in his 2nd four as his first, I'd vote for him again in 2024. Realistically though, his successor needs to be outsider enough to attack the debt and willing to do so. Trump needs to set up the spike with a broad based strong economy and put the Chinese on the trailer

 

[NKBJ]

Nah. It'll be time for one of his sons to take the office.
You know, like his arch enemies were doing.

 

[JettaKnight]

I overheard, "I feel so bad for my daughter - she's missing out on so much of her senior year of HS!"



Well, she can blame COVID-19, but me back in the early 90's? eh...

 

[HoughMade]

I overheard, "I feel so bad for my daughter - she's missing out on so much of her senior year of HS!"

Well, she can blame COVID-19, but me back in the early 90's? eh...

My goal was to miss as much of my senior year ('88-'89) as possible.

...and I guess i get it that the kids are missing things, but how long are we going to whine about the same things? Time to come up with some creative ways to make memories that, while different, wil be be good ones.

...or we could just encourage our kids to wallow in self-pity.

Example- while I would never have wished this Covid craziness on anyone, my family took the lemons and made some lemonade. My college aged daughter would have been away all summer doing her thing. My older son would have been working hard with no time to vacation with the family. We used the situation to take a week-long vacation in a rented cabin at Mammoth Cave. It will probably be the last vacation we take with all 4 kids as the grow up and move on. Would have prefered no pandemic, but since I can't change that, I might as well find some ways to use these unique times to my advantage.

 

[nonobaddog]

...or we could just encourage our kids to wallow in self-pity.

This is an important skill these days. It will be good practice for many...

 

[Ingomike]

If Trump was a democrat, I'm sure he wouldn't get a pass for CDC doing something.


FTR, I think the CDC is at least acting somewhat outside of his purview.

Case in point...

Politico reported in April the Trump administration cut off funding to EcoHealth Alliance due to connections with the Chinese and the Wuhan labs.

Yesterday it was reported Fauci gave EcoHealth Alliance $7.5 million grant...

 

[Ingomike]

If he cant do it in 4 why should I believe he can do it in 8?

If your mechanic cannot replace the engine in your car in 4 hours, why give him 8 hours?

Because some things take time.

Whenever the whole term limits discussion comes up I like to point out that if we do that, the only people in DC with 25 years experience, influence, and connections would be government employees and lobbyists. The process of building a new culture in a government agency would take years, no one walks in and declares the culture changed.

No one builds a castle in the swamp without a lot of work...