Good news and Bad news here. This was BEFORE the health care vote, so it is subject to change, but likely any change would favor the GOP.
The bad news is that Dan Coats seems to be running VERY SLIGHTLY stronger than either of the two PRO-GUN G.O.P. candidates. Rasmussen has been among the most accurate of the polling services for political races. They tend to look at STRONGLY FAVOR and STRONGLY OPPOSE as better long term indicators than just those people who FAVOR or OPPOSE because the folks in the "STRONGLY" categories tend to not be swayed away from their positions. The folks in the middle are subject to change. Dan Coats, no friend of gun owners, has the highest "STRONGLY FAVORABLE" rating of any of the GOP candidates.
Marlin Stutzman is the weakest GOP candidate and the ONLY one of the 3, who, if you move the "undecided voters" over to Ellisworth's side, would lose the November election.
The bad news is that Dan Coats seems to be running VERY SLIGHTLY stronger than either of the two PRO-GUN G.O.P. candidates. Rasmussen has been among the most accurate of the polling services for political races. They tend to look at STRONGLY FAVOR and STRONGLY OPPOSE as better long term indicators than just those people who FAVOR or OPPOSE because the folks in the "STRONGLY" categories tend to not be swayed away from their positions. The folks in the middle are subject to change. Dan Coats, no friend of gun owners, has the highest "STRONGLY FAVORABLE" rating of any of the GOP candidates.
Marlin Stutzman is the weakest GOP candidate and the ONLY one of the 3, who, if you move the "undecided voters" over to Ellisworth's side, would lose the November election.
Rasmussen Surveys said:Election 2010: Indiana Senate
Indiana Senate: Ellsworth Trails GOP Hopefuls – Before Health Care Vote
Tuesday, March 23, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis
Election 2010: Indiana Senate - Rasmussen Reports™
Two of the three top Republican hopefuls for the U.S. Senate in Indiana continue to hold double-digit leads over Democratic Congressman Brad Ellsworth. Ellsworth supported President Obama’s health care plan in a state where opposition to the legislation is higher than it is nationally.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds former Congressman John Hostettler with a 50% to 32% lead over Ellsworth, a current House member who voted with most other Democrats on Sunday to pass the health care plan. The survey was taken last Wednesday and Thursday nights. Fifteen percent (15%) remain undecided in that match-up.
Ex-Senator Dan Coats now posts a 49% to 34% lead over Ellsworth, with 12% undecided.
Ellsworth runs best against the third GOP contender, freshman State Senator Marlin Stutzman. In that match-up, Stutzman leads by just seven points, 41% to 34%. Eighteen percent (18%) are undecided.
In all three match-ups, roughly five percent (5%) of Indiana voters prefer some other candidate. All three Republicans held a lead last month just after incumbent Democratic Senator Evan Bayh’s surprise announcement that he was not seeking reelection this year.
Republicans will pick their Senate nominee in a May 4 primary. Ellsworth faces no major challengers for the Democratic nomination at this time.
Unless there is a major shift if perception of the health care plan, Ellsworth may face a big challenge convincing voters in the state why he voted for the President’s plan. Just 35% of Indiana voters favor the plan proposed by the president and congressional Democrats, while 63% oppose it. This is well above the level of opposition found nationally. These findings include 21% who Strongly Favor the plan and 54% who Strongly Oppose it.
When it comes to health care decisions, 55% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies. Thirty-five percent (35%) fear private insurers more.
Thirty percent (30%) of voters in Indiana rate the president’s handling of health care reform as good or excellent, but 57% think he’s done a poor job.
Sixty-two percent (62%) say a better strategy for health care reform is passing smaller bills that address individual problems rather than a comprehensive bill like the one passed by the Senate and the House. Only 24% think a comprehensive bill is better.
Fifty percent (50%) have a favorable opinion of the Tea Party movement, while just 29% view that movement unfavorably. Yet only 20% of Indiana voters say they are part of the Tea Party movement.
Obama was the surprise winner of Indiana in the 2008 election, beating John McCain by a scant 50% to 49%. But just 39% of voters in the state now approve of the job he is doing as president, with 23% who Strongly Approve. Sixty percent (60%) disapprove of his job performance, including 47% who Strongly Disapprove. This is roughly in keeping with Obama’s job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Fifteen percent (15%) of Indiana voters have a very favorable opinion of Ellsworth, while 14% view him very unfavorably.
Hostettler is viewed very favorably by 13% and very unfavorably by 10%.
For Coats, who served as a senator from Indiana from 1989 to 1999, very favorables are 15% and very unfavorables 11%.
Six percent (6%) have a very favorable view of Stutzman, while eight percent (8%) regard him very unfavorably.
At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.